So I’ve been thinking about it and I really cannot see how John McCain loses this race.   Mitt Romney is collapsing in Iowa, where he needed a win.  Huckabee is moving up, but he’s just too unknown and untested to be President.

Giuliani is not going to win or do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Michigan.   He’s hoping that no one cares he loses badly in 4 contests before Florida.  But anyone who has looked at past election cycles knows that it doesn’t work that way.  A bad week and you’re on the ropes, two bad weeks and you’re out of the race.

Mitt Romney’s entire strategy was to win early and often.  If he can’t do that, the only other advantage he has is his money.  He can spend tens of millions on running national television ads.  But what’s the point, really?  He HAS to win in Iowa or else. 

Fred Thompson will do poorly in Iowa, decide to skip New Hampshire and Michigan, and make a last stand in South Carolina.  He will lose and he will be out.  He might very well  endorse McCain since they served in the Senate together and he might want to be considered for VP.  If he backs Huckabee, there’s no chance of a Thompson for VP movement because they’re both Southerners.

Mike Huckabee is the big unknown now.  The national media likes him and is rushing to build him up… but he’s just too unknown.  He would make an excellent Vice-President and he’s doing a great service to his country by knocking out Romney in Iowa.  But otherwise, the media will dig in and suddenly he’ll look less attractive.  Most of his supporters have decided to back him within the last month, and once the honeymoon is over they’ll be up for grabs again.  McCain and Huckabee seem to have a good deal in common on the issues and Huckabee could be a great Vice-Presidential nominee for McCain.   Huckabee and Romney have had very rocky relationships, so I can’t imagine either of them endorsing the other.

The other guys:  There are at least three other semi-serious candidates out there.   1.) Alan Keyes is running for his own reasons and he will keep running no matter how few votes he gets.   2.) Tom Tancredo is a single-issue candidate and will likely drop-out after a while and endorse whoever will commit to a strong stance on illegal immigration.  Maybe Huckabee, maybe Fred Thompson… who knows for sure.  3.) Duncan Hunter is a solid Congressman with a military background.  If he decides to drop out early, he’ll probably endorse McCain because of their similar backgrounds.

So I think there are good cases to be made that Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson could all live with endorsing Senator McCain… probably moreso than any other candidate.

Ron Paul isn’t dropping out and certainly won’t be endorsing any other Republican candidate.  So we can ignore him.  Tancredo and Keyes are probably off the table.

Rudy Giuliani has said flatly that he’d be voting for McCain if he wasn’t running himself.  So let’s assume that we have Rudy’s endorsement if he drops out early. 

And since Romney has had such rocky relationships with Giuliani and Huckabee… McCain might be his best choice to “stick it” to both of those men.

In short, McCain is probably the most acceptable second choice for Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee, Hunter, and maybe even Mitt Romney.   As these candidates begin to drop out, I bet that we can expect them and their supporters to fall in line behind John McCain.

What are your thoughts?  Am I totally off base here?