Bob Novak is now calling John McCain the likely nominee…

During four final days of campaigning after the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire’s Republican primary was one-on-one between Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Because the winner would become the party’s most likely nominee, McCain’s decisive victory puts him in a commanding position after being counted out for much of the last year.

McCain won a majority of registered Republican voters here as well as New Hampshire independents who voted in the GOP primary (as he did in 2000 when he swamped George W. Bush). Romney’s attacks on McCain’s liberal immigration policies were popular with Republican voters, but did not resonate with McCain’s independent base.

Diminished by losing in Iowa, Romney entered the final weekend in New Hampshire some five percentage points behind. His strategists hoped the immigration issue would erase that lead. In fact, accusing McCain of advocating amnesty for illegal aliens had no more impact in New Hampshire than it had in Iowa.

Romney’s loss here was devastating. He planned to boost his modest national ratings with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he led in spending, organization and polls.

At the beginning of December, Romney enjoyed twice as much New Hampshire support as McCain. The senator’s local supporters attribute his comeback to the endorsement here of independent Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman. But what propelled McCain’s victory was Romney’s loss in Iowa to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The onetime Baptist preacher relied on Iowa evangelicals, an asset lacking in New Hampshire.

The next two weeks are filled with promise for McCain and peril for Romney. Michigan, where Romney grew up (the son of Gov. George Romney), is the next primary, on Jan. 15. But McCain is popular in Michigan, where he defeated Bush in 2000. Another loss for Romney probably ends his candidacy.

South Carolina comes after that on Jan. 19, with Huckabee running in his first Southern primary. But there are substantially fewer evangelicals in South Carolina than Iowa. McCain’s South Carolina campaign is led by Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has recruited much of the 2000 organization.

If McCain wins South Carolina, it will be up to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his late-starting, big-state strategy. Giuliani leads in Florida’s Jan. 29 primary and the California, New York and New Jersey tests Feb. 5. But those leads may not survive McCain’s surge.

Most media outlets have now declared Senator John McCain as the victor of the New Hampshire Republican primary.  One of the bigger surprises in the exit polling data is that McCain beat Romney by roughly the same margin among independents as he did among Republicans.  This suggests that McCain may have successfully moved himself into a position as someone who is able to win closed primaries and eventually the GOP nomination.

Mitt Romney finished second in a state he’s lead in for months.  This is another crushing disappointment for the Massachusetts millionaire, and it sets up next week’s Michigan primary as an absolute must-win for Romney in order to continue his campaign.  After all, Mitt was born in Michigan, he’s spent a fortune on his organization there, and his dad was the governor of the state during the 1960’s.   Polls have shown him leading Huckabee by about 2%, with McCain in third place.  But those numbers are over a week old and all that may have changed now that both Huckabee and McCain have won major contests.

Further behind, Mike Huckabee is currently leading Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul in a close race for third place.  Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and Alan Keyes are barely registering support.

Current results with 60% reporting…

McCain - 37%
Romney - 32%
Huckabee - 12%

Video of Senator McCain’s appearance on Face The Nation earlier today…

And part 2…

I just finished watching the big Fox News debate and was largely unimpressed with the questioning.  The tactics of the moderator were designed to provoke confrontation, not real discussion of any issues.  But that is the Fox News style.

Regardless, Giuliani and Thompson felt like complete non-factors… and Mike Huckabee did not come across as the front-runner he’s been played as.  He was defensive and bland.

This is clearly a fight between Mitt Romney and John McCain, and you could tell that McCain has the knowledge and background to be President.  We’re picking a leader, and anyone who was watching tonight saw that America needs John McCain.  What’d you guys think?

This is a neat look at the activity that’s going on inside the New Hampshire campaign headquarters as volunteers prepare for the big day next week…

Yesterday saw a surprisingly strong showing for Senator McCain in the Iowa Caucuses.   Despite spending virtually no money or time in the state, a late surge pushed McCain to 13% and created a virtual tie for third place with Fred Thompson.

Meanwhile, a new poll out in New Hampshire shows Senator McCain moving into a small lead in the state that will hold the nation’s first primary on Tuesday.

The Detroit News has just officially endorsed Senator McCain for President.  Michigan is an extremely important state that follows quickly after New Hampshire, so this is quite important…

The new year begins with the nation on the doorstep of political transition. We look with keen anticipation toward a pragmatic presidency that will set a course of national purpose and prosperity, a presidency that will restore the government’s financial discipline and revive America’s effectiveness on the global stage.

The successor to George W. Bush will face challenges domestic and foreign that will demand thoughtful and inspired leadership. Michigan’s economic disorder looms largest among our concerns, complicated by international trends that have diminished the vitality of our industrial base. It matters much to this state who occupies the White House.

Iowa kicks off the presidential nomination process this evening, but Michigan’s place on the primary calendar is just around the corner, Jan. 15. We would like to have made endorsements in both party contests, but many of the Democratic candidates have chosen to skip Michigan, leaving us to focus on the Republican race.

Read the rest of the endorsement by clicking here…

Tonight is Iowa Caucus night and the excitement is building by the hour.  We are in the best position of any campaign tonight as we’ve essentially won the expectations game.   If we finish fifth… there’s no penalty because no one is expecting us to do well.  If we finish fourth, we’re winners and can go on to dealing with New Hampshire and Michigan.

If somehow we finish in third place… then Senator McCain will be tonight’s “other big winner” and the bounce into New Hampshire will make him even more unstoppable.

Unlike next week, when we have to win New Hampshire… we can just relax tonight with the pressure off. 

If you want to hope for anything else tonight, besides a nice fourth or third place showing… let’s all hope that Mike Huckabee knocks Mitt Romney out of this thing once and for all. 

It’s going to be a good night! 

For the first time in a very long time, a poll puts Senator McCain squarely in the lead in New Hampshire…

With the New Hampshire Presidential Primaries just one week away, John McCain (31 percent) has overtaken Mitt Romney (25 percent) in the battle for the Republican nomination, according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released today.  In last month’s 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll, McCain trailed Romney by 12 percent.

This is the first poll that has John McCain in first place in New Hampshire since 7News/Suffolk University began polling this race in March 2007.