Well, Michigan turned out about how the polls had predicted.  We did well and we won some delegates, and now the fight moves onward.  A win in South Carolina will make John McCain an unstoppable force and practically secure the Republican nomination for him.  We must make sure this happens.

Ever since the SC primary has moved up to be the first in the South contest, they’ve had a pretty good record.  Every candidate who has won in South Carolina has gone on to take the nomination of the party.

And then on to Florida, Maine, and Super Tuesday!

It’s his home state.

His dad was the governor for many years.

If Mitt Romney can’t win in Michigan… how can he possibly continue his campaign on to South Carolina and Florida?  That’s what the media seems to be agreeing on here.  Win or die for Mitt Romney… that’s the bottomline.

And he may very well win.  Polls have put Romney slightly ahead of McCain… and Democrats (including the DailyKos) are pushing for their voters to cross party-lines and vote Romney in order to create chaos for Republicans.

But it doesn’t matter that much if he wins.  It is absurd to celebrate winning your homestate, where your dad was governor, and where you’ve outspent your opposition by a 7-1 margin.  A Romney win means that he can continue on until February 5th, but he won’t be the nominee.

A McCain win would likely cement John McCain as the new national front-runner and almost-certain GOP nominee.

Let’s hope for victory, but prepare for the real battle…. South Carolina.

Bob Novak is now calling John McCain the likely nominee…

During four final days of campaigning after the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire’s Republican primary was one-on-one between Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Because the winner would become the party’s most likely nominee, McCain’s decisive victory puts him in a commanding position after being counted out for much of the last year.

McCain won a majority of registered Republican voters here as well as New Hampshire independents who voted in the GOP primary (as he did in 2000 when he swamped George W. Bush). Romney’s attacks on McCain’s liberal immigration policies were popular with Republican voters, but did not resonate with McCain’s independent base.

Diminished by losing in Iowa, Romney entered the final weekend in New Hampshire some five percentage points behind. His strategists hoped the immigration issue would erase that lead. In fact, accusing McCain of advocating amnesty for illegal aliens had no more impact in New Hampshire than it had in Iowa.

Romney’s loss here was devastating. He planned to boost his modest national ratings with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he led in spending, organization and polls.

At the beginning of December, Romney enjoyed twice as much New Hampshire support as McCain. The senator’s local supporters attribute his comeback to the endorsement here of independent Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman. But what propelled McCain’s victory was Romney’s loss in Iowa to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The onetime Baptist preacher relied on Iowa evangelicals, an asset lacking in New Hampshire.

The next two weeks are filled with promise for McCain and peril for Romney. Michigan, where Romney grew up (the son of Gov. George Romney), is the next primary, on Jan. 15. But McCain is popular in Michigan, where he defeated Bush in 2000. Another loss for Romney probably ends his candidacy.

South Carolina comes after that on Jan. 19, with Huckabee running in his first Southern primary. But there are substantially fewer evangelicals in South Carolina than Iowa. McCain’s South Carolina campaign is led by Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has recruited much of the 2000 organization.

If McCain wins South Carolina, it will be up to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his late-starting, big-state strategy. Giuliani leads in Florida’s Jan. 29 primary and the California, New York and New Jersey tests Feb. 5. But those leads may not survive McCain’s surge.

The Detroit News has just officially endorsed Senator McCain for President.  Michigan is an extremely important state that follows quickly after New Hampshire, so this is quite important…

The new year begins with the nation on the doorstep of political transition. We look with keen anticipation toward a pragmatic presidency that will set a course of national purpose and prosperity, a presidency that will restore the government’s financial discipline and revive America’s effectiveness on the global stage.

The successor to George W. Bush will face challenges domestic and foreign that will demand thoughtful and inspired leadership. Michigan’s economic disorder looms largest among our concerns, complicated by international trends that have diminished the vitality of our industrial base. It matters much to this state who occupies the White House.

Iowa kicks off the presidential nomination process this evening, but Michigan’s place on the primary calendar is just around the corner, Jan. 15. We would like to have made endorsements in both party contests, but many of the Democratic candidates have chosen to skip Michigan, leaving us to focus on the Republican race.

Read the rest of the endorsement by clicking here…

Jim Geraghty of the National Review writes that he sees the race coming down to a 2-person contest between McCain and Romney… and that he would bet on McCain!

Santa was good to me, and got me an XM Satellite Radio receiver. Right now on POTUS08, David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision polling company is predicting the Republican primary will come down to a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

“We’re seeing trendlines in the direction of Romney and McCain,” he just said.

He says that last cycle his organization did see late trendlines breaking towards Kerry and Edwards, who finished first and second in Iowa.

He also notes that we could, God forbid, still see an event between now and Florida that reorients the election towards terrorism, national security, and homeland security, which would help Giuliani, he contends.

“If I were to bet right now, I would be putting my money on John McCain,” says Johnson, who worked on Bob Dole’s 1988 campaign.

 John McCain recieved the endorsement of the Nashua Telegraph today, wrapping up a clean sweep of newspaper endorsements that shames Mitt Romney by a margin of 26-0 in the Granite State. 

And the major national papers are taking notice of this renewed interest, see this story from the NY Times…

The string of newspaper endorsements just continued to role in for Senator John McCain, getting the nod on Sunday of the Nashua Telegraph, the 26th newspaper in the region to endorse his candidacy.

Normally, newspaper endorsements have only limited value, encouraging supporters and getting voters to perhaps give a candidate another look. But Mr. McCain’s sweep of the New Hampshire area newspapers is something altogether different.

Mitt Romney, leading in the most recent polls in the state, has scored zero endorsements.

(more…)

Bob Beckel nails it right on the head here. A McCain ticket with Huckabee on as VP would be practically unbeatable in a general election…

James Joyner, of Outside The Beltway, writes that his prediction is a Clinton vs. McCain matchup that ends with Senator McCain becoming President McCain in January of 2009…

A McCain-Clinton matchup would be interesting. Both candidates have considerable experience on the national stage and are able campaigners unlikely to make debilitating gaffes. Ultimately, though, I think McCain would come out ahead.

During times where national security is on the radar screen, Republicans traditionally have an advantage. This would be especially true with McCain, a career naval officer who knows full well the horrors of war, running against a relative novice in military affairs who seems to have no real vision in that arena.

Read his piece here.

So I’ve been thinking about it and I really cannot see how John McCain loses this race.   Mitt Romney is collapsing in Iowa, where he needed a win.  Huckabee is moving up, but he’s just too unknown and untested to be President.

Giuliani is not going to win or do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Michigan.   He’s hoping that no one cares he loses badly in 4 contests before Florida.  But anyone who has looked at past election cycles knows that it doesn’t work that way.  A bad week and you’re on the ropes, two bad weeks and you’re out of the race.

Mitt Romney’s entire strategy was to win early and often.  If he can’t do that, the only other advantage he has is his money.  He can spend tens of millions on running national television ads.  But what’s the point, really?  He HAS to win in Iowa or else. 

Fred Thompson will do poorly in Iowa, decide to skip New Hampshire and Michigan, and make a last stand in South Carolina.  He will lose and he will be out.  He might very well  endorse McCain since they served in the Senate together and he might want to be considered for VP.  If he backs Huckabee, there’s no chance of a Thompson for VP movement because they’re both Southerners.

Mike Huckabee is the big unknown now.  The national media likes him and is rushing to build him up… but he’s just too unknown.  He would make an excellent Vice-President and he’s doing a great service to his country by knocking out Romney in Iowa.  But otherwise, the media will dig in and suddenly he’ll look less attractive.  Most of his supporters have decided to back him within the last month, and once the honeymoon is over they’ll be up for grabs again.  McCain and Huckabee seem to have a good deal in common on the issues and Huckabee could be a great Vice-Presidential nominee for McCain.   Huckabee and Romney have had very rocky relationships, so I can’t imagine either of them endorsing the other.

The other guys:  There are at least three other semi-serious candidates out there.   1.) Alan Keyes is running for his own reasons and he will keep running no matter how few votes he gets.   2.) Tom Tancredo is a single-issue candidate and will likely drop-out after a while and endorse whoever will commit to a strong stance on illegal immigration.  Maybe Huckabee, maybe Fred Thompson… who knows for sure.  3.) Duncan Hunter is a solid Congressman with a military background.  If he decides to drop out early, he’ll probably endorse McCain because of their similar backgrounds.

So I think there are good cases to be made that Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson could all live with endorsing Senator McCain… probably moreso than any other candidate.

Ron Paul isn’t dropping out and certainly won’t be endorsing any other Republican candidate.  So we can ignore him.  Tancredo and Keyes are probably off the table.

Rudy Giuliani has said flatly that he’d be voting for McCain if he wasn’t running himself.  So let’s assume that we have Rudy’s endorsement if he drops out early. 

And since Romney has had such rocky relationships with Giuliani and Huckabee… McCain might be his best choice to “stick it” to both of those men.

In short, McCain is probably the most acceptable second choice for Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee, Hunter, and maybe even Mitt Romney.   As these candidates begin to drop out, I bet that we can expect them and their supporters to fall in line behind John McCain.

What are your thoughts?  Am I totally off base here?

Andrew Sullivan wrote this excellent opinion piece for the London Sunday Times that lays out the case why John McCain is the only Republican who can end the Iraq war with honor and dignity. 

Read the whole story here.

McCain, however, looks better not just because he has stuck to his pro-war position while acknowledging painful reality, but because the others have increasingly looked so unnerving. Romney’s plastic demeanour and say-anything style have not caught on outside the first two states where he has poured millions of his own money into blanket television advertising. Thompson has yet to seem a viable president. Giuliani’s bizarre personal quirks and all-purpose, random hawkishness do not calm nerves in a very unstable world. Fellow Republican candidate Mike Huckabee is a jovial inheritor of Bush’s spend-like-Jesus conservatism, but has zero foreign policy experience. And so . . . we come back to McCain.