Most media outlets have now declared Senator John McCain as the victor of the New Hampshire Republican primary.  One of the bigger surprises in the exit polling data is that McCain beat Romney by roughly the same margin among independents as he did among Republicans.  This suggests that McCain may have successfully moved himself into a position as someone who is able to win closed primaries and eventually the GOP nomination.

Mitt Romney finished second in a state he’s lead in for months.  This is another crushing disappointment for the Massachusetts millionaire, and it sets up next week’s Michigan primary as an absolute must-win for Romney in order to continue his campaign.  After all, Mitt was born in Michigan, he’s spent a fortune on his organization there, and his dad was the governor of the state during the 1960’s.   Polls have shown him leading Huckabee by about 2%, with McCain in third place.  But those numbers are over a week old and all that may have changed now that both Huckabee and McCain have won major contests.

Further behind, Mike Huckabee is currently leading Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul in a close race for third place.  Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and Alan Keyes are barely registering support.

Current results with 60% reporting…

McCain - 37%
Romney - 32%
Huckabee - 12%

Yesterday saw a surprisingly strong showing for Senator McCain in the Iowa Caucuses.   Despite spending virtually no money or time in the state, a late surge pushed McCain to 13% and created a virtual tie for third place with Fred Thompson.

Meanwhile, a new poll out in New Hampshire shows Senator McCain moving into a small lead in the state that will hold the nation’s first primary on Tuesday.

Tonight is Iowa Caucus night and the excitement is building by the hour.  We are in the best position of any campaign tonight as we’ve essentially won the expectations game.   If we finish fifth… there’s no penalty because no one is expecting us to do well.  If we finish fourth, we’re winners and can go on to dealing with New Hampshire and Michigan.

If somehow we finish in third place… then Senator McCain will be tonight’s “other big winner” and the bounce into New Hampshire will make him even more unstoppable.

Unlike next week, when we have to win New Hampshire… we can just relax tonight with the pressure off. 

If you want to hope for anything else tonight, besides a nice fourth or third place showing… let’s all hope that Mike Huckabee knocks Mitt Romney out of this thing once and for all. 

It’s going to be a good night!